California’s recycling agency, CalRecycle, lowered the baseline it once used to measure plastic reductions. Researchers say that enforcing a lower starting point could allow producers to eliminate significantly less plastic than lawmakers originally intended.
SB 54 is a California measure aimed at reducing waste from single-use packaging. Requiring companies that produce packaging to reduce and recycle their plastic, it was passed in 2022. Lawmakers set a baseline, a way to measure their progress using the amount of plastic sold in the state, in 2023.
CalRecycle’s earlier model estimated that about 2.9 million tons of plastic were produced in the state in 2023. The new calculation sums up only 1.03 million tons of plastic, which slashes the original estimate in half.
The older estimate was based partly on studies of plastic found in landfills, while the new one is based on information reported directly by packaging companies. Using information submitted by over 2,000 companies, CalRecycle acknowledged the reports represent only about half of the producers covered by the law. They will update the number annually.
SB 54 requires plastic production to be reduced by 10% by 2027, 20% by 2030, and 25% by 2032.
The law also aims to hit the state’s recycling targets, which require 30% of plastic to be recycled by 2028, and up to 65% by 2032.
Because the baseline determines how many tons of plastic companies can produce, lowering it means companies can meet the same legal target while eliminating much less plastic.
“If the baseline is set too low, producers will have less plastic to cut, and Californians won’t get the reductions the law calls for,” said Kyle Meisterling, a project scientist at the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory at UCSB.
“We’ll probably never know exactly how much single-use plastic entered California’s market in 2023. But of the five estimates we compared, four put it at roughly 3 million tons or more,” said Meisterling.
Methods for reducing plastic material include using reusable or refillable alternatives, eliminating excess use of plastic, or fashioning packaging to be lightweight. Additionally, up to 8% of the source reduction requirements in any year can come from use of postconsumer recycled plastic.
Industry workers’ and lawmakers’ eyes are on SB 54. It was the first law to set required, numeric goals to cut plastic at the source, and other states.
Douglas McCauley, director of the Benioff Laboratory, fears that setting a lower baseline “would set a precedent” for other states, leading to less plastic being recycled than necessary.
CalRecycle’s SB 54 advisory board is set to meet again on Friday to discuss the revised plan for packaging policy in California.
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